World Cup 2026 June 22 Best Bets: My Picks, Ratings and Irish Kick-Off Times
Available in USA Sunday-into-Monday card of four fixtures, three of which carry direct qualification implications and one of which features Lionel Messi chasing a record that has stood for 12 years. If you are sitting in a Dublin pub at 6pm on Monday with €30 in your pocket and four matches to choose from, this column tells you where I am putting mine and why. All four kickoffs translated to Irish Standard Time, all four prices fractionalised for the Irish punter, all four verdicts on a 10-point scale.
- Argentina to win + Over 2.5 is my main angle at 4/7 against Austria — Messi can break the record on the night.
- France clean sheet at around 4/9 is the safer France play; backing them at 1/12 outright is dead money.
- Norway moneyline at 21/20 against Senegal is the bet of the day — Opta has them 45%.
- Jordan v Algeria is a no-bet for me. Prices too tight, kickoff too late.
Argentina v Austria — Group J, MD2 — 18:00 IST (Arlington, TX) — 8/10 Confidence
My verdict: Back Argentina to win and over 2.5. Value 8/10.
The price: Argentina 4/7 (1.58 decimal), draw 13/5 (3.65), Austria 22/5 (5.38) as of 22 June (worldcup-2026.bet consensus). The Argentina total goals over 2.5 line sits around 4/5 in most books, and that is where my main play lands.
Why I am leaning in: Argentina have won eight in a row in this tournament cycle and went 3-0 over Algeria on Friday with a Messi hat-trick. They have Cristian Romero available after his earlier knee scare, Emiliano Martínez is back behind a fit Molina (Tagliafico returning), and the only doubt is Gonzalo Montiel (muscular — Molina starting in his place anyway). Austria are no walkover — Posch’s broken jaw is cleared with a brace, Alaba is fit, and they came past Jordan 3-1. But David Alaba himself called Argentina a side "with quality in their ranks, even besides Messi" (Al Jazeera, 21 June), and Austria assistant coaches have all but conceded the underdog tag in pre-match interviews. Pablo Aimar, Argentina’s assistant coach, said the day before: "Austria is a very tough team, as we’re seeing with the vast majority of the teams participating in this World Cup" (Al Jazeera). That is coach-speak for "we are not getting bored".
A win secures Argentina’s progression. Christoph Baumgartner is out for Austria after thigh surgery, and Austria’s attacking depth is shallow. I have Argentina at roughly 65% to win and 14% for Austria (the 21% draw line is the bookmaker’s protection). My true odds on Argentina win are closer to 1/2; 4/7 is the right side of fair.
Alternative view: Austria are unbeaten in five and have the kind of disciplined, set-piece-led football that has frustrated bigger sides at World Cups before. A 1-1 draw is the picture that haunts me. If you want insurance, double chance Argentina or draw at 1/5 is the bet for the cautious punter — small return, high probability.
My pick: Argentina to win + Over 2.5 goals as a small double. Stake: 2 units.
France v Iraq — Group I, MD2 — 22:00 IST (Philadelphia, PA) — 7/10 Confidence
My verdict: Back France clean sheet. Value 7.5/10.
The price: France 1/12 (1.08 decimal), draw 75/10 (7.68), Iraq 27/1 (27.84). Opta’s pre-match model gives France 88.5% / draw 8.5% / Iraq 3% (Al Jazeera, 21 June). That is one of the most one-sided prediction lines in the tournament.
Why I would never back France at 1/12 straight: the price is wrong on the upside. There is no margin in 1/12. The smarter Irish punter shifts to France clean sheet (around 4/9 in most books), France -2 handicap (around 4/5), or Mbappé anytime scorer (around 8/13). Mbappé scored a brace against Senegal and is now France’s all-time top scorer on 58 international goals. He could make his 100th appearance tonight. Iraq are at the World Cup for the first time since 1986 and arrive on a 4-1 thumping by Norway. Their best player, Ali Jasim, is fit but exposed.
The single statistic that anchors my pick: France conceded zero in their 3-1 opener against Senegal (the goal was a deflection through Saliba’s leg per the daily fact pack). Iraq scored once in the opener — a penalty. France’s defensive shape with Saliba, Konaté, Hernández is the best in the tournament.
Alternative view: France could rotate. Didier Deschamps has form for resting starters in the second group game once qualification is essentially in hand. If he rests Mbappé and the midfield engine, Iraq might sniff a goal. Malo Gusto is also doubtful with a foot knock from training. I do not think rotation costs France the clean sheet, but it is the realistic counterweight.
My pick: France clean sheet. Stake: 1.5 units.
Norway v Senegal — Group I, MD2 — 01:00 IST Tuesday (East Rutherford, NJ) — 8.5/10 Confidence
My verdict: Back Norway moneyline. Value 8.5/10. The bet of the day.
The price: Norway 2.04 decimal (roughly evens or 21/20), draw 17/5 (3.41), Senegal 22/10 (3.22) as of 22 June. Opta’s model has Norway at 45%, draw 25.4%, Senegal 29.6% (theanalyst.com, 21 June). That puts the true odds on Norway around 6/5. 21/20 is the bet.
This is where the data and the eye-test align: Norway have won 11 straight competitive matches. Erling Haaland has scored in 11 consecutive Norway games. He scored a brace on his World Cup debut (4-1 v Iraq). Wolfe and Ryerson are both back from minor knocks. Senegal arrived with their captain Koulibaly fit, but the heart of the side was outplayed by France and the 1-3 scoreline flattered them slightly. They will not catch fire in front of a US Sunday-night crowd, and an early Norway goal will see them sit deep.
Alternative view: Senegal still have the best individual attacking talent in the group outside Mbappé and Haaland. If Mahrez-style flair players hit early, they pinch a winner. The 29.6% Opta give them is not trivial. But at evens, I am happily taking Norway.
The IST kickoff is brutal — 1am Tuesday — and I appreciate not every Irish punter will be awake for it. Pre-match Norway to win and Haaland to score (around 5/4 in most books) is the bet to set and forget. You wake up Tuesday morning, you check your phone, you smile.
My pick: Norway moneyline. Stake: 2 units. Alternative: Norway win + Haaland to score, 5/4, 1 unit.
Jordan v Algeria — Group J, MD2 — 04:00 IST Tuesday (Santa Clara, CA) — 3/10 Confidence
My verdict: Avoid. Value 3/10 on the favourites; 5/10 on player props.
The price: Jordan 6.24 decimal (roughly 5/1), draw 4/1 (3.98), Algeria 1/2 (1.47). Algeria are favoured after losing 0-3 to Argentina — the market reads that loss as a respectable scoreline against a heavyweight rather than a structural problem. Mahrez is expected to return to the XI (he was benched against Argentina, a tactical call), and Amoura has 10 qualifying goals on his CV.
But I do not bet matches where my model gap is small and the markets are tight. Jordan scored their first-ever World Cup goal through Olwan (recovered Achilles, expected to start). Jordan’s Abdallah Nasib is doubtful with a knock; Yazan Al Naimat is gone for the tournament with an ACL. This is a match where the away side is the favourite, the home side has nothing to lose, and the kickoff time means most Europeans will not be watching. Algeria win is too short, Jordan win is too long, and the draw at 4/1 is the trap most punters fall into and lose on.
Alternative view: Amoura at 6/5 to score is reasonable and the only player prop I would entertain in this match. If you cannot resist a stake on this game, that is where I would put it.
My pick: No bet. Pass. Stake: 0 units.
My Verdict: One Card, Three Bets, One Pass
Five and a half units across three matches. Argentina double 2 units, France clean sheet 1.5, Norway moneyline 2 units. Jordan-Algeria stays off the slip. If you want to build a 6/1 accumulator from the three (Argentina + France CS + Norway), you can — but I prefer the singles. Variance kills weekly profit.
For deeper context: my Messi v Klose record take covers the Argentina-Austria narrative in detail, and my England v Ghana verdict plus Scotland v Brazil verdict round out the British-Irish week. The broader market read sits in my World Cup 2026 odds verdict and the framework in my World Cup 2026 betting guide.
Irish-licensed options such as Rabona and Spinit were among the books holding competitive lines on Argentina and Norway this morning. Shop around — small price differences add up across a tournament.
18+. Gamble responsibly. When the fun stops, stop. Odds correct as of 22 June 2026 ~14:00 IST and subject to change. Aggregator caveat: Oddschecker and OddsPortal were 403-blocked at retrieval; treat 1X2 lines as indicative.
