World Cup 2026 Round of 32: My Bracket Verdict and the Ties I Like

The group stage is all but done, the Round of 32 begins tomorrow, and the part of the tournament I enjoy most as a columnist is finally here. Groups are a marathon; knockouts are a series of one-off coin-flips where the market’s certainties get exposed. The bottom half of the bracket only locks in late tonight once Groups J, K and L finish, but the first batch of ties is already confirmed and priced — and there is value in them. Here is my honest read on the opening knockout weekend, and the one underdog I am most confident backing.

All odds are fractional with the decimal in brackets, accurate as of 27 June.

South Africa v Canada (28 June): The Opener Nobody Mentions the Suspensions

The Round of 32 opens at SoFi Stadium, 8pm IST, and the bookmakers have Canada at 4/5 (1.77) with South Africa a 19/4 (5.73) outsider and the draw 8/3 (3.67). On paper, a reasonable price for the co-hosts. But two things give me pause about laying into Canada. They are without Ismaël Koné (broken leg) and managing Alphonso Davies’ minutes as he returns from a long lay-off — so the side is not at full strength.

South Africa, meanwhile, are dangerous despite losing two players to suspension for this tie: Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane both saw red against Mexico. A team reaching its first-ever World Cup knockout with that kind of adversity often carries a togetherness the price cannot measure. I am not backing South Africa to win outright, but the draw at 8/3 has more merit than the market implies, and Canada at 4/5 is no banker.

Brazil v Japan (29 June): The Tie I Most Want to Oppose the Favourite

Brazil are 3/4 (1.75) to beat Japan at the NRG Stadium, with the draw 29/10 (3.88) and Japan a tempting 9/2 (5.48). The head-to-head is lopsided — Brazil have won seven of the last ten meetings — and Brazil are a 12/1 (13.00) outright shot who shortened this week. So why am I circling Japan?

Because Brazil are missing more than the price suggests. Éder Militão is out for the rest of the World Cup after hamstring surgery, and Rodrygo’s tournament is over with a torn ACL — two first-choice contributors gone. Japan went through Group F unbeaten, drawing with Sweden, and are organised, disciplined and quick in transition even without Kaoru Mitoma. A 3/4 Brazil carrying two significant absences against a side that does not beat itself is exactly the kind of knockout tie where I want the underdog on my side.

My play: Japan on the double chance (draw or win) offers real protection against a Brazil side I rate below their reputation right now. At the very least, I would not be touching Brazil at 3/4.

Germany v Paraguay (29 June): Short Price, Shaky Champions

Germany are a skinny 2/5 (1.42) against best-third qualifiers Paraguay, with the draw 4/1 (5.08) and Paraguay 15/2 (8.70). I understand the price — Germany have the pedigree and the squad — but this is a side that lost 2-1 to Ecuador and only topped Group E on goal difference. They have drifted in the outright to 16/1 (17.00) for a reason.

Paraguay are stubborn and hard to break down, and 15/2 for the upset is not the lottery ticket it looks against a Germany defence that has wobbled. I would not back Paraguay to win straight up with confidence, but under 2.5 goals in a cagey knockout tie against a low-scoring South American side is the angle I prefer to a 2/5 favourite.

Netherlands v Morocco (29 June): My Pick of the Round

This is the tie of the opening weekend and, for the Irish neutral who loves a dark horse, the one to circle. The Netherlands are 5/4 (2.25), the draw is 12/5 (3.41) and Morocco are 14/5 (3.79) — a near coin-flip dressed up as a home-favourite tie. Morocco finished second in Group C unbeaten, the same Morocco that reached the semi-finals in 2022 and have made a habit of humbling Europe’s elite.

The Dutch are without Jurriën Timber and Xavi Simons, while Morocco carry their own absence in Nayef Aguerd, but Achraf Hakimi’s quality and Morocco’s organisation make them live underdogs at nearly 3/1. Morocco to qualify, or the draw at 12/5 to take the tie to extra time, is my favourite value play of the round. I made the case for them as a tournament dark horse in my Morocco dark-horse rating, and nothing about a near-even knockout price changes it.

My Verdict

The lesson of every World Cup knockout stage is the same: the short prices are where the market is most exposed, because group-stage reputations do not survive contact with a one-off elimination tie. This opening batch fits the pattern perfectly. Brazil at 3/4 and Germany at 2/5 are two wounded favourites I want to oppose, and Netherlands v Morocco is a genuine 50-50 priced as if it were not.

My single favourite from the round is Morocco to advance — a 2022 semi-finalist at nearly 3/1 to get past a Dutch side missing two starters is the kind of price I built this column to find. The bottom half of the bracket forms tonight, and I will be back with the ties involving England and the Group J/K/L sides once the draw clears. For the bigger picture, my group predictions hub tracks how we got here, and my dark horses ranked column explains why I keep siding with the outsiders at this stage.

As always, the knockout markets move fast once team news drops — I have been taking the early underdog prices with Zotabet and Lamabet, but get the line that suits you and never chase a shortened favourite.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 27 June 2026. Knockout prices move sharply on team news — confirm before staking and bet responsibly.