World Cup 27 June Best Bets: My Picks for the Final Group Day

The group stage ends tonight, and it ends with the three tightest tables of the lot. Groups J, K and L all play their final round on 27 June, and unlike the procession we sometimes get on the last matchday, two of these three are still live. That makes for a proper Saturday-night card for the Irish punter — six games, the first kicking off at 10pm IST, the last not finishing until the small hours. With no Ireland to cheer and Scotland already gone, my attention, like most of yours, lands squarely on England in Group L.

Here are my picks, my acca and — just as important — the games I am leaving alone. All odds are fractional with the decimal in brackets, accurate as of 27 June.

England v Panama: Back the Margin, Not the Win

England are 1/5 (1.20) to beat Panama, and at that price the win itself is unbackable — you are risking five to win one on a side that has produced 6.72 expected goals across two games against a Panama team that has not scored at this tournament. The value, if there is any, is in the margin. Opta give England an 84.1% chance of topping the group and Panama just 8.9% of anything; Panama are out regardless.

My pick is England on the -2 goal handicap. Reece James is out with a hamstring flare-up and Bukayo Saka is a doubt with achilles management, but Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson are fit and the supporting cast is more than enough against the group’s weakest side. The 2018 meeting between these two finished 6-1. A comfortable, professional 3-0 or 4-0 is exactly the kind of result England post when the pressure is off and qualification is secured.

My confidence: 7/10. The only risk is a rotated, complacent England easing off at 2-0, which is why this is a measured stake rather than a banker.

Croatia v Ghana: The Real Coin-Flip of the Night

This is the tie I will be glued to. It is winner-take-all in the run for second behind England: Ghana go through if they avoid defeat, Croatia must win. Croatia are evens (2.00), the draw is 9/4 (3.27) and Ghana are 17/4 (5.26). The two sides have never met before, which strips away the usual H2H comfort blanket.

I am siding with Croatia to win at evens. Three reasons. First, motivation asymmetry: a draw sends Ghana through, so the urgency is all Croatian. Second, Joško Gvardiol has recovered and is available again, shoring up a defence that has looked leaky. Third, Ghana’s goalkeeper Lawrence Ati-Zigi is a groin doubt having missed the last match — a settled, in-form keeper is exactly what you want when you only need to not lose, and Ghana may not have one. Add Philadelphia’s forecast of showers and a slick surface, and I lean towards the side that has to take the game to its opponent.

There is a real counter-argument — Ghana held England to a goalless draw and are well organised — so I would not stake this heavy. But at evens, with Croatia needing the win and Modrić chasing one last knockout run in what is almost certainly his final World Cup, I am on.

Colombia v Portugal: My Swerve

Both sides are already through, and that is precisely why I am not betting it. Portugal are favoured at 11/10 (2.15) because they must win to top the group, while a draw is enough for Colombia to finish first. Opta have it close — Portugal 51.6%, the draw 25.2%, Colombia 23.9% — but when two qualified teams meet in Miami’s 32-34°C humidity with seeding the only prize, I do not trust the motivation to produce a clean betting angle.

The Ronaldo subplot is irresistible as theatre — Roberto Martínez has spent the week batting away questions about a misfiring talisman — but theatre is not value. If you must have a play, under 2.5 goals appeals more to me than picking a winner in a game neither side strictly needs to win. My verdict: leave it, enjoy it, and put the stake into a game that means something.

The Group J Duel and DR Congo’s Long Shot

Two more I have a light view on. In Group J, Argentina have already won the group and Lionel Messi is set to start on the bench with Scaloni rotating heavily, so Jordan v Argentina (Argentina 1/5) holds no interest — a second-string Argentina against an eliminated side is a no-bet. The live question is Algeria v Austria for second place, where Austria are 27/20 (2.35) and go through with a win or a draw thanks to the better goal difference. I will take Austria to qualify; needing only a point against an Algeria side that must win is a meaningful edge.

In Group K’s other game, DR Congo are 7/10 (1.70) to beat Uzbekistan, and they have to win to keep a slim best-third hope alive against an Uzbekistan team already out and shipping goals (a −7 group difference). Of all the short prices tonight, that motivation gap is the one I trust most.

My Acca and Final Verdict

For those who like to roll a few together, here is the treble I have built off tonight’s card — three sides with both form and motivation on their side:

Rolled into a treble that lands around 5/1, that is my preferred way to play a night where most of the singles are too short to excite on their own. If accumulators are your thing, I break down the method in my World Cup accumulator picks, and for the season-long value approach see my value bets column.

My single-game banker for the night is Croatia at evens — the one genuine coin-flip where I think the market has the motivation read slightly wrong. For everything that follows once these groups settle, the knockouts begin tomorrow, and my Round of 32 bracket verdict is where I am already hunting the better prices.

A closing reminder for Irish readers staying up for the late kick-offs: stake what the pick is worth, not what the occasion tempts you into. I have been taking these lines with BillyBets and Rabona this week, but as ever, shop around — the price, not the brand, is the bet.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 27 June 2026. Lines move, so confirm before you stake; please bet responsibly.