26 June World Cup Recap: Dembélé Flies, Cape Verde Make History — My Verdict

I have watched a lot of dead-rubber matchdays in my time — the kind where the qualified sides rest their stars and the eliminated ones play for pride. The final round of Groups G, H and I on 26 June was supposed to be one of those evenings. It was not. Instead we got one of the fastest hat-tricks in World Cup history, the smallest nation ever to reach a men’s knockout stage, and a champions-elect Spain side that laboured so badly I am quietly downgrading them on my own ratings sheet. From a Dublin armchair, with no Irish side to follow, this is exactly the kind of night that makes the neutral’s seat the best seat in the house.

Let me take you through the results that actually moved the needle, the ones I think you should be acting on, and the one performance the market has badly misread.

France 4-1 Norway: Dembélé’s Statement, and a Manager’s Absence

Ousmane Dembélé scored three times inside 32 minutes — 7′, 20′ and 32′ — in a 4-1 win over a heavily rotated Norway, with Désiré Doué adding a fourth deep into stoppage time and Thelo Aasgaard’s 21st-minute reply long forgotten by full time. France finished Group I with a perfect nine points and a +8 goal difference, the only side in the tournament to win all three group games with that kind of authority.

Here is the detail that matters for the romance of it: Didier Deschamps was not on the touchline. Reports say he returned to France following the death of his mother, with assistant Guy Stéphan taking the side. A team that produces a first-half hat-trick and a four-goal display under those circumstances is telling you something about its character. "I’m happy. It’s a unique and special moment for me," Dembélé told ESPN afterwards, and you do not need me to translate the body language.

My performance grade: 9/10. France were already my pick of the favourites, and nothing here changes that. They shortened from around 4/1 to 7/2 (4.50 in decimal) as of 27 June in the outright market, and I still think that is a fair price rather than a short one. If you backed them early, sit tight.

Cape Verde Make History — and It Is Not Just Sentiment

A goalless draw with Saudi Arabia does not sound like history. It was. Cape Verde — tournament debutants, a nation of barely half a million people — went through as runners-up in Group H, unbeaten across three games, and became the smallest country by population ever to reach the knockout stage of a men’s World Cup. Bubista’s side drew with Spain and Uruguay and refused to lose to anyone.

"We are proud of having arrived at this stage. We have shown that we are a small country, but that we fight for the things that we want to achieve," the head coach told ESPN. As a columnist who spends most of the year being professionally cynical about price and value, I will allow myself one unguarded line: this is why we watch.

For your slip, the read is more sober. Cape Verde are rank outsiders from here and I would not be backing them to win a knockout tie. But their story is the kind of momentum narrative that the market sometimes over-corrects against, and I will be watching their Round of 32 price closely before dismissing them entirely.

My romance grade: 10/10. My betting grade: hold fire.

Spain 1-0 Uruguay: Champions-Elect, or Overrated?

Here is the result that did not make the back pages but should shape your thinking. Spain beat Uruguay 1-0 through Álex Baena’s 42nd-minute goal to win Group H with seven points. A win is a win. But this was a laboured, low-tempo performance against a Uruguay side that was already on its way out, and it follows a group campaign that has flattered to deceive more than once.

The market agrees with me, for once. Spain drifted from around 11/2 to 6/1 (7.00) as of 27 June, and crucially they have now slipped behind Argentina in the betting (more on that reshuffle in my Argentina second-favourite verdict). I had Spain as my second-favourite a fortnight ago. After three games of evidence, I do not any more.

My performance grade: 6/10. The talent is real; the rhythm is not there. If you are holding Spain at a short price, this is the point in the tournament where I would think hard about cashing some of it out.

Belgium, Egypt, Senegal: The Best-Third Picture Sharpens

Three more results tidied up the group stage. Belgium thrashed New Zealand 5-1 — Leandro Trossard with a brace (28′, 50′), then Kevin De Bruyne (66′), Romelu Lukaku (86′) and Alexis Saelemaekers (90+4′) — to pip Egypt to top spot in Group G on goal difference after Egypt’s 1-1 draw with Iran. Egypt’s Mahmoud Saber and Iran’s Ramin Rezaeian traded early goals, and Iran had a stoppage-time winner chalked off by VAR for offside — the kind of margin that decides a best-third place.

Senegal, meanwhile, hammered a 10-man Iraq 5-0 (Habib Diarra, Ismaïla Sarr, a Pape Gueye double and Iliman Ndiaye) to finish third in Group I on three points and +2, putting themselves firmly inside the best-third bubble.

My Verdict: What to Do With Your Slip

If you take one thing from 26 June, make it this: the favourites’ market has quietly re-ordered itself, and the move is justified by what happened on the pitch. France strengthened their claim and remain fair value. Spain weakened theirs and drifted for good reason. Argentina, who I cover in detail separately, have crept past Spain into second.

My personal play from this matchday is patience, not action — the value will be in the Round of 32 prices once tonight’s last three groups settle the bracket. If you want my live read on where the smart money is going as the knockouts begin, my Round of 32 bracket verdict lays out the first ties I actually like. And for the bigger outright picture, my full odds verdict ranks every contender from France down.

A reminder for Irish readers placing these bets: shop the lines. A point of value on a 7/2 favourite is worth far more over a seven-game run than it looks on a single slip. I have been getting my best early prices with Boomerang Bet this week, but the principle matters more than the brand — never take the first number you see.

Odds quoted are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 27 June 2026; they move quickly, so always check the live price before staking.