Golden Boot Race: Messi Overtakes Mbappé as Favourite — but Where Is the Value?

The Golden Boot market has just flipped, and it is worth stopping to note why. For most of this tournament the bookmakers priced Kylian Mbappé as the man most likely to finish top scorer. As of this week, that is no longer true: Lionel Messi has moved to the front of the market, and he has done it the hard way — by scoring in every single match he has played. His goal against Egypt in the round of 16 took him to eight, sole leadership of the race, and favouritism for the award. If you hold a top-scorer slip, or you are thinking of taking one before the quarter-finals, this is the moment the numbers changed.

The New Order at the Top

Here is where the market sits, accurate as of 9 July 2026. Lionel Messi is now the favourite at 6/5 (2.20), ahead of Kylian Mbappé at 7/5 (2.40). Erling Haaland is the third name at 15/2 (8.50), Harry Kane follows at 9/1 (10.00), and the outsiders run down through Ousmane Dembélé at 50/1 (51.00) and Mikel Oyarzabal at 70/1 (71.00).

On the pitch, the standings tell the same story the odds do. Messi leads outright on eight goals. Mbappé and Haaland sit on seven. Kane is on six. What is striking is how tight the pricing is between the top two despite Messi’s one-goal lead and sole leadership — the bookmakers clearly think Mbappé’s chance of catching him is very live. That gap, or rather the lack of one, is where the interesting bet lives.

Why Messi Is Favourite — and Why That Is Fair

Messi’s case is the simplest in the field: he has scored in every game. An opening hat-trick, a goal in each subsequent round, and the eighth against Egypt that pushed him clear. When a 38-year-old is producing at that rate, you do not bet against the pattern lightly. He is the sole leader, he is on penalties for Argentina, and Argentina are a serious side with a genuine route to the final.

The caveat is the one that applies to every top-scorer favourite: to keep scoring, his team has to keep playing. Argentina face Switzerland — the tournament’s stingiest surviving defence outside Spain, with goalkeeper Gregor Kobel in outstanding form — and then, potentially, a semi-final against the winner of England and Norway. Messi has conceded nothing to nerves so far, but his route is not the softest, and a single quiet knockout night lets the chasing pack back in. At 6/5, you are backing him to keep doing something extraordinary; fair, but not generous.

The Case for the French Value

Here is my actual position, and it is a slightly contrarian one: I think the value is Mbappé at 7/5 (2.40), not Messi at 6/5. The reasoning has nothing to do with form and everything to do with fixtures. The Golden Boot is very often won by the man who simply plays the most football, because more games means more chances. And France are the outright tournament favourites at 9/5 (2.80) — the side most likely, by the market’s own reckoning, to still be playing on 19 July.

Mbappé trails Messi by a single goal, he is on France’s penalties and set-piece threat, and he has already made history at this tournament as the second player after Messi to score seven or more at two different World Cups. If France go deeper than Argentina — which the outright market says is more likely than not — Mbappé gets more opportunities to erase a one-goal gap than Messi gets to protect it. Backing the second favourite who is likely to play the most remaining minutes is, historically, one of the better-value plays in this market.

The Outsiders Worth a Glance

If you want a longer price with a live angle, Haaland at 15/2 (8.50) is the one. He is level with Mbappé on seven and faces an England defence missing its suspended and injured pieces this Saturday — a match I broke down in my Norway vs England verdict. If Norway pull off the upset and Haaland is scoring the goals that do it, that 15/2 will look very short very quickly. Kane at 9/1 (10.00) is harder to fancy: he is two behind, England’s route is uncertain, and he is not on the same shot volume as the leaders.

One technical note that matters at this stage: if the race finishes level on goals, the Golden Boot is decided first on assists and then on minutes played. That tiebreaker quietly favours the creators — another small point in Mbappé’s favour over a pure penalty-box finisher, and worth remembering if you are choosing between two players you expect to finish on the same tally.

My Verdict: Take the Man Likely to Play the Most

Messi is the favourite, and he deserves to be — sole leader, scoring every game, a legend defying the calendar. But favourite and value are not the same thing, and in a top-scorer market the deciding variable is often games remaining rather than current tally. On that measure I make Mbappé at 7/5 the smarter bet, with France favoured to go furthest, and Haaland at 15/2 the each-way flyer if you fancy a Norwegian upset run. If you simply want to back the best player in the tournament to finish the job, Messi at 6/5 is perfectly defensible — just know you are taking a shortish price on a tougher route.

For the full outright picture, my odds verdict ranks every remaining contender, and my evergreen Golden Boot prediction tracks this market round by round. For how these scorers shape the actual ties, my quarter-final best bets has my picks across all four games — including Messi anytime scorer against Switzerland.

Irish readers: every remaining match is live and free-to-air on RTÉ, so you can follow this race goal by goal to the final on 19 July. I have been taking the top-scorer prices with Boomerang Bet and Zotabet — both competitive on Mbappé and Haaland — but the market moves fast at this stage, so confirm before you stake.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 9 July 2026. Lines move — confirm before you stake. Please bet responsibly. 18+, gambleaware.ie.