World Cup Quarter-Final Best Bets: My Picks for All Four Ties

Eight teams left, four ties, and a betting card that has narrowed to the point where every price now carries real weight. This is my favourite stage of any World Cup — the group-stage lottery is gone, the also-rans have been filtered out, and what remains is four heavyweight knockout games where getting the read right actually matters. France open the quarter-finals against Morocco tonight from Boston, Spain meet Belgium in Los Angeles tomorrow, and Saturday gives us a double bill: Norway against England in Miami, then Argentina against Switzerland in Kansas City. Here is where I think the value sits across the whole card.

All odds are fractional with the decimal in brackets, accurate as of 9 July 2026. Irish readers: RTÉ has all four ties free-to-air on TV and the RTÉ Player, so there is no excuse to miss any of them — even the Argentina game that runs to 2am our time.

France vs Morocco: Back the Low-Scoring Rematch

France are 4/7 (1.57) to win in 90 minutes, the draw is 3/1 (3.80–3.95) and Morocco are 5/1 to 6/1 (6.00–6.90). Kick-off is 9pm Irish time from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, just outside Boston.

This is a Qatar-2022 semi-final rematch — France won that one 2-0 — and the temptation is to assume the same outcome. I would resist it. Morocco arrive unbeaten (three wins, three draws), having knocked the Netherlands out on penalties and then beaten co-hosts Canada 3-0. This is not the plucky outsider of 2022; it is a confident, defensively excellent side that has conceded just five goals in six games. France, for their part, needed a Mbappé penalty to edge Paraguay 1-0 in the last 16 and may be without Aurélien Tchouaméni, a major doubt with a thigh problem.

My pick: Under 2.5 goals at around 5/6 (1.83). France have kept three clean sheets and concede roughly half a goal a game; Morocco are built to frustrate and take you deep. Add in a nervy knockout occasion and an Argentine refereeing crew that has drawn its own controversy, and I see a cagey, low-scoring tie far more readily than a French goal-fest.

My confidence: 7/10. The Tchouaméni doubt weakens France’s midfield control, which only reinforces the case for a tight game. I go deeper on the narrative in my France vs Morocco verdict.

Spain vs Belgium: The Clean Sheet Is the Bet

Spain are 8/13 (1.61), the draw is 3/1 (4.00) and Belgium are 17/4 (5.25). Kick-off is 8pm Irish time on Friday from the roofed, weather-proof SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

Two numbers frame this tie. Spain have four consecutive clean sheets and have conceded just twice all tournament — the meanest defence left in the competition. Belgium, by contrast, have kept only one clean sheet, needed a 4-1 win over the USA to look convincing, and are now without Amadou Onana, whose ACL injury ends his tournament. The historical head-to-head is brutal, too: Spain have won six of seven meetings and lost none, outscoring Belgium 16-3 across them.

My pick: Spain to win to nil at 6/5 (2.20). The headline price of 8/13 is unbackable, but Spain’s defensive record against a leaky Belgian side is exactly where the edge lives. Nico Williams is a doubt, which trims Spain’s attacking ceiling, but this bet is about the back four, and that back four has not been breached in four matches.

My confidence: 7.5/10. This is my banker of the four ties. The full case is in my Spain vs Belgium verdict.

Norway vs England: Goals at Both Ends

Norway are 14/5 (3.80), the draw is 5/2 (3.50) and England are 17/20 to 20/21 (1.85–1.95). Kick-off is 10pm Irish time on Saturday from a humid Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, where afternoon thunderstorms are a real possibility.

England are favourites and, on paper, should be. But their defence is a patchwork: Jarell Quansah is suspended after his red card against Mexico, Jordan Henderson is out of the tournament with a freak wrist injury, and Reece James is a fitness doubt at right-back. Against that, they face Erling Haaland, who has seven goals and four match-winners already, and who spent four years learning exactly how to hurt English defences in the Premier League. Norway shocked Brazil 2-1 to get here; they are not carrying passengers.

My pick: Both teams to score at around 8/11 (1.73). England will create — Bellingham has been the player of the tournament for them — but their reshuffled, short-handed defence against a fit Haaland is a recipe for goals at both ends. I would rather back the pattern of the game than pick a winner in a tie this open.

My confidence: 6.5/10. As an Irish neutral I will be tempted to lean England for regional reasons, but the injuries make the clean-sheet route far too risky. My full preview — and why this is the tie the market may be misreading — is in my Norway vs England verdict.

Argentina vs Switzerland: Trust the Man on Eight Goals

Argentina are 5/7 to 4/5 (1.71–1.80), the draw is 5/2 (3.50) and Switzerland are 17/4 (5.25). Kick-off is 2am Irish time in the early hours of Sunday from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City — one for the truly committed.

Switzerland are the story here: their first quarter-final since 1954, secured by a penalty shoot-out win over Colombia in which goalkeeper Gregor Kobel was the hero. They have conceded only three goals all tournament and Kobel has 16 saves. Argentina, though, have Lionel Messi in the form of his life — eight goals, an opening hat-trick, and a goal in every single match so far. The head-to-head is one-sided: Argentina have won five and drawn two of seven meetings, Switzerland none.

My pick: Messi anytime scorer at around 4/5 (1.80). When a man has scored in every game of a tournament and leads the Golden Boot race, you do not overthink it. Switzerland’s defence is excellent, but Messi is finding a way regardless, and 4/5 on a player this hot is fair value rather than a trap. His pursuit of the Golden Boot is worth a bet in its own right — see my Golden Boot race take.

My confidence: 7.5/10. The one caveat is that Argentina have conceded in each of their last three, so Switzerland may nick one — but that does not stop Messi scoring.

My Treble for the Quarter-Finals

If you want a single acca, I would leave France-Morocco out of it — Unders in a knockout tie is a coin-flip too far for a treble — and combine the other three: Spain to win to nil, both teams to score in Norway-England, and Messi anytime scorer. Rolled together that lands at roughly 9/1 (10.00) — a punchy return from three outcomes I rate as more likely than the market does. If accumulators are your thing, my accumulator picks guide explains how I stake them, and for the outright picture, the odds verdict ranks every remaining contender.

I have been taking these early prices with Boomerang Bet and Rabona this week — both had competitive lines on the clean-sheet and BTTS markets — but as always, shop around before you stake. Irish readers: two of these games (Norway-England and, brutally, Argentina-Switzerland) run late into Saturday night and Sunday morning, so set your stakes before the first whistle and watch the rest for pleasure.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 9 July 2026. Lines move — confirm before you stake. Please bet responsibly. 18+, gambleaware.ie.