Argentina Are Second Favourite Now — Is 11/2 Value? My Verdict

The outright market has quietly reshuffled its top three this week, and if you only glance at the headline prices you might have missed the most interesting move of the lot. Argentina have leapfrogged Spain to become second favourite for the World Cup, shortening sharply while the reigning European champions drifted the other way. As a columnist who spends the tournament hunting for the gap between price and probability, this is the kind of repricing I love to interrogate. Is Argentina at 11/2 a fair reflection of a side hitting form, or has the market run too far on the back of a perfect group and one extraordinary individual?

Let me lay out the move, the case for it, and the catch I cannot ignore.

The Move: Argentina In, Spain Out

Here are the numbers that matter, all as of 27 June. France are the clear, lone favourite at 7/2 (4.50), shortened from 5.00 after winning Group I with a perfect nine points. Behind them, Argentina have come in from 7/2-ish to 11/2 (6.50) — a sharp move — while Spain have drifted from around 11/2 to 6/1 (7.00). That is the reshuffle in a single line: Argentina 11/2, Spain 6/1, the two having swapped places in the betting.

The rest of the board: England unmoved at 7/1 (8.00), Portugal steady at 10/1 (11.00), Brazil shortened to 12/1 (13.00), then Germany and the Netherlands both drifting to 16/1 (17.00), and the USA into 29/1 (30.00) on co-host momentum.

The Case For It Is Real

I want to be fair to the move, because it is not a market overreaction. Argentina have won all three group games, and the headline fact is staggering: Lionel Messi has scored all five of Argentina’s goals so far. Against Algeria and Austria he was the difference, and the underlying numbers back the eye test — he has led his side for chances created, through balls, final-third line-breaks and progressive carries. A side that wins its group with a perfect record while its talisman is in this kind of vintage form deserves to shorten.

Spain, by contrast, earned their drift. I covered their laboured 1-0 win over Uruguay in my 26 June recap, and three underwhelming group performances have cost them their place in the market’s pecking order. The bookmakers have simply followed the evidence. When the form and the prices move in the same direction, I tend to trust the repricing rather than fight it.

The Catch: A Five-Goal Dependence

Now the part my columnist instincts will not let go. Argentina have scored five goals at this tournament, and Messi has scored all five. That is a thrilling statistic and a flashing amber light at the same time. A World Cup is won over seven knockout-or-bust games, and a side that has not yet shown it can score without one 38-year-old is carrying a single point of failure that the better defences will target.

There is mitigation. Scaloni has been able to rotate — Messi is set to start on the bench against Jordan tonight with top spot secured — which keeps the legs fresh for the knockouts. But fresh legs do not change the structural question: who scores Argentina’s goals if Messi is contained, injured or simply has an off night in a single-elimination tie? Until I see that answer on the pitch, I read 11/2 as a fair price rather than a generous one. It is not a value bet to me; it is an accurate one.

Where I Think the Edge Actually Is

If Argentina at 11/2 is correctly priced and Spain at 6/1 is a fade, where does that leave the value hunter? Two places. France at 7/2 remain my pick of the short end — the most complete side in the tournament, winning with authority even with their manager absent, and a price I still consider fair rather than skinny. And further down the board, Brazil at 12/1, despite their injury issues, and the dark horses I keep returning to offer more genuine each-way appeal than a Spain side drifting for good reason.

For the full ranking of every contender from France down, my odds verdict pillar lays out where I stand on the entire market, and my winner prediction sets out the single side I would actually back to lift the trophy. The Messi-record narrative that underpins Argentina’s surge is one I covered when it broke in my Messi and the Klose record take.

My Verdict

Argentina deserve to be second favourite, and 11/2 is an honest price — but an honest price is not the same as a bet. I am not opposing the move, because the form merits it; I am simply declining to take a number that already bakes in Messi being Messi for another seven games. If you are a romantic backing him to write one more chapter, I understand the temptation entirely, and 11/2 is a perfectly defensible each-way play. As a value call, though, I would rather have France at 7/2 or hunt the bigger prices where the market is slower to catch up.

My personal outright position is unchanged by this week’s reshuffle: France to win, with a small each-way nibble on a dark horse, and no interest in Spain at 6/1. The market got the Argentina-Spain swap right. My job is to tell you when "right" still is not "value" — and this is one of those times.

I have been tracking these outright moves across OnlySpins and WinRolla this week, but wherever you bet, take the biggest price on the side you fancy and never chase a number that has already shortened.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 27 June 2026. Outright prices move daily — confirm the live line before staking and bet responsibly.