World Cup Semi-Final Best Bets: My Picks for Both Ties

Four teams left, two ties, and a card so top-heavy that there is not a single weak side to bet against. France, Spain, England and Argentina — the four highest-ranked nations on the planet and four past world champions — have carried us to a last four with no romance and no soft options, only heavyweights. France meet Spain in Dallas tonight in what both camps are calling "the final before the final", and England renew their oldest, angriest World Cup rivalry against Argentina in Atlanta tomorrow. Here is where I think the value sits across both games.

All odds are fractional with the decimal in brackets, accurate as of the morning of 14 July 2026. Irish readers: both semi-finals kick off at a civilised 8pm Irish time and both are free-to-air — RTÉ and Virgin Media are carrying the tournament, with the RTÉ Player and Virgin Media Player for streaming. After the 2am Argentina game at the quarter-final stage, an 8pm double-header feels like a reward.

France vs Spain: Value on the Form Side

France are 11/8 (2.35) to win in 90 minutes, the draw is 21/10 (3.10) and Spain are also 21/10 (3.10). Kick-off is 8pm Irish time from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, just outside Dallas.

The market makes France a clear favourite, and on the tournament so far you can see why: a perfect six wins from six, sixteen goals scored, the most feared attack left in the competition led by a Kylian Mbappé who has drawn level at the top of the Golden Boot race. But look at the two most recent meetings between these sides and a different picture emerges. Spain beat France in the Euro 2024 semi-final (2-1) and again in the 2025 Nations League semi-final (5-4). They arrive unbeaten in a team-record 36 matches, having conceded just one goal in the entire tournament, and with a defensive record — a run of six straight clean sheets, the longest in World Cup history — that no French forward has yet had to solve.

My pick: Spain to qualify — value on the match line at 21/10 (3.10). Backing the second favourite against a France side that has won its knockout games narrowly (2-0 over Morocco, 1-0 over Paraguay) rather than emphatically is exactly the kind of contrarian price I look for. Spain have the better recent head-to-head and the meaner defence; 21/10 on the form team feels generous.

My confidence: 6.5/10. The caveat is real — France are favourites for a reason and may welcome back Aurélien Tchouaméni, whose return would restore their midfield control. The full case for both sides is in my France vs Spain verdict.

England vs Argentina: The Tie I Am Treating With Caution

England are 6/4 to 13/8 (2.55–2.65), the draw is 15/8 to 2/1 (2.90–3.00) and Argentina are 2/1 (3.00–3.05). Kick-off is 8pm Irish time on Wednesday from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

This is the closest of the two ties on paper, and the numbers say so — barely a coin-flip between the sides. Over their last six games the two are near-identical: same win-draw-loss shape, Argentina marginally ahead on goals scored, England marginally better defensively. England are the nominal favourites but they carry problems into a defensive reshuffle: Jarell Quansah is suspended (the last match of his ban), Jordan Henderson is out of the tournament with a wrist injury, and both Declan Rice (illness) and Reece James (fitness) are doubts. Against that, Argentina bring a Lionel Messi who has scored eight goals and found the net or an assist in every knockout round.

My pick: this is a small-stakes or watch-only tie for me, but if I am forced to lean, it is Argentina at 2/1 (3.00–3.05). The value is on the side with the tournament’s form forward and the fresher defensive picture, against an England back line that is being patched together. As an Irish neutral I will feel the regional pull toward England — most of us watched half these players in the Premier League — but the head says the price on Argentina is the bet. My full breakdown is in my England vs Argentina verdict.

My confidence: 6/10. In a tie this even, protecting the stake matters more than chasing it.

The Golden Boot Play

Beyond the match lines, the standout futures bet of the week is in the Golden Boot market. Mbappé and Messi are level on eight goals, but the market has swung to Mbappé as favourite at 8/11 to 11/10 (1.71–2.10), with Messi next at 29/20 (2.45). Mbappé holds the first tiebreak (three assists to Messi’s two) and, as the favourite’s forward, is likeliest to play the most remaining football.

My pick: Mbappé to win the Golden Boot at 8/11–11/10 (1.71–2.10). If France go deep, he gets the most chances to pull clear; if they go out tonight, the race blows wide open anyway. I make the full argument — and name the each-way flyer — in my Golden Boot race take.

My confidence: 7/10. My banker of the week.

My Double for the Last Four

If you want a single acca, I would leave the England-Argentina coin-flip out of it and pair the two calls I actually trust: Spain to win in 90 minutes and Mbappé to win the Golden Boot. Rolled together that lands at roughly 5/1 (5.90) — a healthy return from two outcomes I rate as more likely than the market does. For how I stake multiples, my accumulator picks guide lays it out, and for the outright picture the odds verdict ranks all four survivors.

I have been taking these prices with BillyBets and WinRolla this week — both had competitive lines on the Spanish match odds and the Golden Boot market — but as always, shop around before you stake. With both games at 8pm Irish time, there is no late-night penance this time; set your stakes early and enjoy the football.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 14 July 2026. Lines move — confirm before you stake. Please bet responsibly. 18+, gambleaware.ie.