Belgium 3-2 Senegal: The Greatest Comeback, the Latest Goal and a Round of 16 Preview — My Verdict

I have been watching and writing about football for longer than I care to admit, and I thought I had seen every kind of comeback. Tottenham vs Ajax. Liverpool vs Barcelona. Istanbul. I was wrong. What Belgium did against Senegal on 1 July in the Round of 32 belongs in a different category, because the timeline is so compressed and so absurd that it reads more like fiction than a match report.

Let me lay out the facts, because they are worth repeating slowly.

Belgium were 2-0 down. Habib Diarra scored for Senegal in the 25th minute. Ismaïla Sarr added a second in the 51st. For the next 34 minutes, Belgium created chances, hit the post, and looked like a side that was going home. At the 85th minute — five minutes from the end of normal time — they were still 2-0 down. No team in World Cup history has ever trailed by two goals that late in normal time and avoided defeat.

Then Belgium scored three times in 35 minutes of play. Romelu Lukaku pulled one back in the 86th. Youri Tielemans equalised in the 89th. The game went to extra time, and in the 120th minute of added time — at exactly 124 minutes and 44 seconds of elapsed match time — Tielemans stepped up and converted a penalty. The latest goal ever scored in a men’s World Cup.

The VAR Controversy: Was It a Penalty?

The penalty decision was the longest VAR review of the tournament. The referee hesitated — visibly, obviously — before pointing to the spot, and the pundits were not convinced.

"I genuinely don’t believe that’s a penalty," said Gary Neville on Sky Sports. "It’s very, very harsh," Roy Keane agreed. "You want conviction in the referee’s decision, and he was certainly hesitating a long time." Two of the sharpest pundits in football, both saying the same thing. I watched the replay four times and I am still not certain. The contact existed; whether it was enough to send a player down in the 120th minute of a World Cup knockout tie is a question that will be debated for years.

What is not debatable is the drama. Belgium are through. Senegal are out. And the tournament has its defining moment of the round.

What This Tells Us About Belgium

Here is where I put my columnist hat back on. Belgium’s outright odds are 35/1 (36.00), which places them ninth in the market behind the established heavyweights. That price, broadly, is right. This is not a vintage Belgian golden generation — De Bruyne is still there, Lukaku still scores, Tielemans has just produced the goal of the tournament, but the depth and defensive solidity are not those of a title contender.

What the comeback does tell us is something about character. A side that can come back from 2-0 down at 85 minutes is a side that does not break. That matters in knockout football, where one bad half does not have to mean elimination. Belgium have now demonstrated that they can absorb punishment and still find a way. That is the kind of quality that makes them dangerous opponents even if they are not favourites.

My tournament grade for Belgium: 6.5/10 on talent, 9.5/10 on mentality. The gap between those two numbers is exactly why they are fun to watch and impossible to back with confidence.

The Round of 16: Belgium vs USA, 6 July

Belgium’s reward is a tie against the United States on 6 July — and the subplot is almost as good as the Senegal comeback. The USA beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 but lost their striker Folarin Balogun to a straight red card in the 64th minute. Balogun is automatically suspended for the Round of 16, which strips Pochettino’s side of their most dangerous forward option against a Belgian defence that has just shown it can survive under siege.

"For me, never is it a red card," Pochettino said of the Balogun decision. "Never was there intention to step on the player." Whether he is right or wrong, the consequence is real: the USA face Belgium without their best goalscorer, in front of what will be a raucous home crowd, against a side that has just proved it cannot be written off at any scoreline.

The USA are 25/1 (26.00) in the outright market. Belgium are 35/1 (36.00). Neither is a price I would back to win the tournament, but the individual match odds for 6 July are the ones to watch — and I suspect Belgium will be shorter than most people expect, given the momentum and the Balogun absence.

My Verdict: The Market Will Catch Up

If there is one angle from 1 July that the wider market has not yet fully processed, it is the Belgium vs USA match-up. The Balogun ban weakens the USA at exactly the point where they face a side with nothing to lose and everything to prove. Belgium’s defensive record is not elite — they conceded twice to Senegal and twice to England in the group — but their ability to keep going when the game looks lost is something you cannot put a number on.

I will have a detailed Belgium vs USA preview before 6 July. For now, my advice is simple: if you want to back Belgium in that tie, do it before the market adjusts. The momentum from this comeback, combined with the Balogun news, will move the price.

For the full 1 July recap, including Kane’s record and the USA result, see my 1 July verdict. For tonight’s three Round of 32 ties, my 2 July best bets have the picks. And for the longer view, the odds verdict ranks every remaining side in the tournament.

Irish readers: Belgium vs USA on 6 July is shaping up as one of the best neutral-viewing ties of the Round of 16. Mark it in the diary. I have been pricing this one up with Zotabet and Lamabet, who both had early value on Belgium to qualify — worth a look before the line hardens.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 2 July 2026. Lines move — confirm before you stake. Please bet responsibly.