World Cup 2 July Best Bets: My Picks for the Last Round of 32 Day

Today is the penultimate day of Round of 32 action — three ties, all of them intriguing, none of them straightforward. Spain vs Austria kicks off at 8pm Irish time from the California sunshine of SoFi Stadium. Portugal vs Croatia follows at midnight from Toronto’s BMO Field, in a heatwave that has triggered a weather warning. And Switzerland vs Algeria closes the night at 4am IST from a rainy Vancouver — by which point most of you will have given up and gone to bed, which is probably the sensible play. I, however, will be watching all three. Here is where I think the value sits.

All odds are fractional with the decimal in brackets, accurate as of 2 July 2026.

Spain vs Austria: Back the Clean Sheet, Not the Margin

Spain are 1/3 (1.33) to win, the draw is 17/4 (5.25) and Austria are 9/1 (10.00). On raw talent, this should be comfortable — Spain finished their group with seven points and, remarkably, without conceding a single goal. That is the first time in their World Cup history they have completed a group stage with a clean sheet across all three games.

But here is the catch. Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino are both ruled out — Williams with a right adductor injury, Pino with a shoulder sprain — and those are two of Spain’s most dynamic wide threats. The creative burden falls almost entirely on Lamine Yamal, who is 18 and brilliant but has never carried this much weight in a knockout game at a major tournament.

Austria, by contrast, have a fully fit squad under Ralf Rangnick, reached the knockout round for the first time since 1998, and qualified via a 96th-minute Kalajdžić equaliser against Algeria that tells you everything about their mentality. This is not a side that will roll over.

My pick: Spain to win to nil at 4/5 (1.80). The value is not in the headline price — 1/3 is unbackable — but in Spain’s defensive record. They have not conceded at this tournament. If they keep that going against an Austria side that creates chances but struggles to finish them, the clean-sheet line is where the edge sits.

My confidence: 7/10. The injury absences give me slight pause, but Spain’s defensive structure has been the one genuinely elite thing about them at this World Cup.

Portugal vs Croatia: The Value Is Croatian

This is the tie I am most interested in from a betting perspective. Portugal are 4/5 (1.77-1.80), the draw is 12/5 to 13/5 (3.40-3.65) and Croatia are 15/4 to 4/1 (4.70-5.00). The market says Portugal are clear favourites and the bookmakers have not moved much on that assessment. I disagree, or at least I think the gap is too wide.

Croatia shortened roughly 45% overnight — a significant move — and the reasons are solid. Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić ran the midfield in a 2-1 win over Paraguay, Joško Gvardiol anchors a defence that conceded just three goals in the group (two of them to England, the group winners), and Croatia topped Group L on points before England overtook them on the final matchday. This is a side with pedigree and peak motivation: for both Modrić (41) and Cristiano Ronaldo (40), this is almost certainly their final World Cup — one of them is going home tonight. I cover the emotional dimension in my farewell verdict, but the betting angle is simpler.

My pick: Croatia double chance (win or draw) at 6/5 (2.20). Portugal’s group-stage campaign was inconsistent — a 1-1 draw with DR Congo, a 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan and a 0-0 draw with Colombia. They are relying on Ronaldo to produce in the big moment, and the Ronaldo of this tournament has been functional, not decisive. Croatia at 4/1 is tempting but a step too far for a single; the double chance gives me Croatia’s upside with insurance against extra time.

My confidence: 7.5/10. This is my banker for the night.

Switzerland vs Algeria: The Coach vs His Old Side

Switzerland are evens (2.02), the draw is 21/10 (3.10) and Algeria are 3/1 (3.94). The subplot here is wonderful: Algeria’s head coach Vladimir Petković managed Switzerland for seven years before Murat Yakin took over, and he is now trying to knock out the side he built. The first-ever competitive meeting between these two nations, and it kicks off at 4am Irish time from a rainy BC Place in Vancouver.

Switzerland topped Group B with seven points and have the look of a quietly efficient side — Xhaka, Freuler and Jashari all fit, Dan Ndoye Manzambi with 3 goals and 1 assist. Algeria scraped through as a third-placed team after a late 3-3 draw with Austria, and M. El Amine Amoura — their most dangerous attacking player — is a serious doubt with a thigh injury.

My pick: Switzerland to win at evens (2.02). This is the most straightforward play of the night. Switzerland are better, fitter, and playing at a venue where the rain and cool temperatures (12-16°C) suit European football more than North African. If Amoura is out, Algeria lose their primary threat. Evens is a fair price, not a generous one, but in a three-match card where the other two prices are tighter, this is the cleanest single.

My confidence: 7/10. I would be 8/10 if Amoura were confirmed out, but the doubt drags it down half a point.

My Treble for the Night

Rolled together, that treble lands at roughly 9/2 (5.50) — a solid return for three outcomes I rate as more likely than the market does. If trebles are not your style, my accumulator picks guide explains the method, and for the longer outright view, the odds verdict ranks every remaining contender.

For the match that has more emotion than value, my standalone Portugal vs Croatia farewell piece is where I lay out what this tie means beyond the betting angle. And for what last night’s results mean for the bracket, my 1 July recap covers Kane, Belgium and the Balogun red card.

Irish readers: the first kick-off is at 8pm IST (Spain vs Austria), which is civilised. After that, you are into the small hours. My advice: set your stakes before midnight and watch the late games for pleasure, not for chasing. I have been taking these lines with Rabona and TikiTaka — both had competitive early prices on the Croatia double chance — but as ever, shop around.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 2 July 2026. Lines move — confirm before you stake. Please bet responsibly.