Portugal vs Croatia: The Last Dance for Ronaldo and Modrić — My Verdict

There is a version of this preview that runs through the expected line-ups, the xG numbers and the tactical match-ups. I will get to all of that. But first, let me say what this game actually is, because it deserves more than a dry betting preview.

Cristiano Ronaldo is 40 years old. Luka Modrić is 41. Between them they hold six Ballon d’Ors and have played in more World Cup games than most nations have qualified for. They were team-mates at Real Madrid, they were rivals at every international tournament for over a decade, and tonight, at BMO Field in Toronto at midnight Irish time, one of them will play his last ever World Cup match. The loser goes home. There is no consolation bracket, no third-place play-off consolation. One and done.

I have watched both of these players since before some of you were old enough to place a bet. And I will tell you honestly: this is the World Cup fixture I have been most looking forward to since the bracket was drawn.

What the Market Says — and Where I Think It Is Wrong

Portugal are 4/5 (1.77-1.80) to win in 90 minutes. Croatia are 15/4 to 4/1 (4.70-5.00). The draw is 12/5 to 13/5 (3.40-3.65). Those prices tell you the market sees this as a comfortable Portuguese win, and on paper that is defensible — Portugal finished second in Group K with five points (a 1-1 draw with DR Congo, a 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan, a 0-0 draw with Colombia), while Croatia finished second in Group L with six points (a 2-4 loss to England, a 1-0 win over Panama, a 2-1 win over Paraguay).

But the market is, I think, overrating Portugal for two reasons. First, their group-stage campaign was inconsistent. The 5-0 against Uzbekistan inflated the numbers; the two draws told a different story of a side that struggles against well-organised defences. Second, the Ronaldo factor cuts both ways. He is the talisman and the captain, but he is also 40, and the debate about whether Roberto Martínez should start him or bring him off the bench has followed Portugal through every round. Ronaldo’s outright Golden Boot odds tell the story — he is 23/1 to 59/1 (23.00-61.00) depending on the bookmaker, a huge range that screams uncertainty.

Croatia, by contrast, shortened roughly 45% overnight — and the money is smart. Modrić and Kovačić in midfield remain elite at controlling tempo. Gvardiol is one of the best centre-backs in the tournament. And Croatia’s knockout pedigree is extraordinary: semi-finalists in 2018, third place in 2022, and a track record of raising their level when the stakes go up.

My assessment: Portugal are favourites for a reason, but not by the margin the market implies. The draw — and extra time — is a very live outcome here. I covered my betting pick in my 2 July best bets (Croatia double chance at 6/5), so let me use this space for the story.

Ronaldo at 40: The Impossible Goodbye

Cristiano Ronaldo has scored at five consecutive World Cups. He has 136 international goals — the all-time record. He is 40 years old and playing in his eleventh major tournament for Portugal. The numbers are so large they have stopped sounding real.

And yet the conversation around him at this World Cup has been less about what he has done and more about what he can no longer do. Portugal’s most dangerous moments in the group stage came through Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leão and João Félix — not through Ronaldo. The market knows it: his Golden Boot odds have drifted to the longest they have been all tournament.

If this is his last game, the final image of Ronaldo at a World Cup will be defined by tonight. A goal and a win, and the narrative writes itself. A quiet exit, and the conversation shifts to whether Martínez held on to him for one tournament too long. I suspect Ronaldo knows that better than anyone in the stadium.

Modrić at 41: The Quiet Genius’s Last Bow

Luka Modrić does not generate the same volume of headlines, but his case for being the greatest midfielder of his generation is at least as strong as anyone’s. He won the Ballon d’Or in 2018, breaking the Messi-Ronaldo duopoly, and he did it on the back of a World Cup run that took Croatia to their first-ever final.

At 41 he is still starting, still dictating, still finding passes that nobody else in the squad can see. Croatia’s 2-1 win over Paraguay in the final group game was a masterclass in midfield control, and Modrić was at the centre of it. If he leaves this tournament tonight, he leaves as one of the greatest players ever to wear the chequered shirt — and that is not hyperbole.

The difference, for the punter, is that Modrić’s team-mates tend to perform better around him in knockout football than Ronaldo’s do around theirs. Croatia’s collective rises; Portugal’s can flatten. That is why I lean Croatian on the double chance, even if Portugal have the marginally better squad on paper.

The Venue and the Conditions

BMO Field in Toronto, kick-off midnight IST (7pm local). Toronto is under a heat warning — temperatures have been in the high 30s this week, with humidity pushing the apparent temperature higher still. There is a 40% chance of showers on 2 July, which could either cool things down or make the surface slippery and unpredictable. Either way, the heat favours the side that controls possession rather than the side that presses — and that, historically, is Croatia.

My Verdict: Enjoy This One

I rarely say this in a betting column, but: whatever you stake on this game, make sure you watch it first and foremost for what it is. Two of the greatest players of the 21st century, meeting in the knockout stage of a World Cup, knowing one of them will not play at this level again. The last time that sentence applied was probably Zidane vs Ronaldo (the original) in 2006. It does not happen often.

My betting position is clear — I like Croatia’s value, and I have explained why in my picks for tonight. But if Croatia win on penalties after a 0-0, and Modrić walks off the pitch for the last time to a standing ovation in Toronto, I suspect even the punters who backed Portugal will struggle to feel hard done by. Some matches are bigger than the slip.

For the full tournament picture, my odds verdict ranks every contender, and for the outright Golden Boot race — where Mbappé and Messi lead with six goals apiece — my evergreen golden boot prediction has the latest assessment.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets) and accurate as of 2 July 2026. Lines move — confirm before you stake. Please bet responsibly.